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NFL Week 11 betting notes

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The Minnesota Vikings improved to 8-1 last week, tied for the best record in the NFL. Yet they are currently home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. It would be just the fourth time since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger that a team 8-1 or better is a home underdog, and the first time since 1976 when that team started its regular quarterback.

For the 22nd straight meeting, the New England Patriots are favored over the New York Jets, the longest active streak in the NFL. The Jets are 4-0 outright and ATS on the road this season, the only team unbeaten both outright and ATS on the road.

The hottest team in the NFL from a spread perspective is the Tennessee Titans, who have covered seven straight games. They are tied with the New York Giants for the best mark in the NFL. The 7-2 Giants are only three-point favorites at home over the 3-6 Detroit Lions

Season Notes

  • Underdogs: 81-61-5 ATS (have been .500 or better each week)

  • Home teams: 71-74-5 ATS

  • Below: 86-62-2 (unders have been .500 or better every week)

  • Best team’s ATS: Tennessee, New York Giants (7-2)

  • Worst team ATS: Los Angeles Rams (2-6-1)

  • Best over team: Cleveland (6-2-1)

  • Best under team: Denver (8-1)


Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3), Thursday at 8:15 ET

  • Tennessee has covered seven straight games, the longest active streak in the league, and Tennessee’s longest streak since 2008 (eight straight). Tennessee is 7-2 ATS, tied with the New York Giants for the best mark in the league.

  • Tennessee games have gone under the total in six straight games.

  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in their past five games as a favorite (1-5 ATS this season).

  • Aaron Rodgers is 11-3-1 ATS in his career on Thursdays.

  • Unders in prime-time games are 19-11-1.


  • Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their past four games after starting the season 6-0 ATS.

  • Chicago games have gone over the total in four straight.

  • Atlanta is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite under Arthur Smith (2-8 ATS since 2020).

  • Justin Fields is 6-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.


  • Buffalo is 0-3 ATS in their last three games with back-to-back upset losses as at least 6.5-point favorites. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have lost three straight games, all as at least a 6.5-point favorite (2002 New Orleans, 1995 Miami).

  • Buffalo is one of three teams to be favored in every game this season (Tampa Bay: 10, Philadelphia: nine entering this week).

  • Kevin Stefanski is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points. His largest career underdog role is eight points in the 2020 Divisional Playoffs at Kansas City, which he covered.


  • Lamar Jackson is 8-3-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the regular season (12-0 outright).

  • Baltimore is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. Lamar Jackson is 10-16 ATS as a home favorite.

  • Baker Mayfield is 0-5 ATS in his past five meetings against Baltimore.

  • Carolina is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Double-digit underdogs are 6-1 ATS since Week 7 (9-5 ATS this season).


  • Indianapolis games are 8-2 to the under this season. Under is 14-3 in Indianapolis’ past 17 games. Four straight Philadelphia games have gone over the total.

  • Jeff Saturday seeks to be the eighth coach in the Super Bowl era to win each of his first two games, both as an underdog. No coach in the Super Bowl era has won each of his first two games as at least a four-point underdog.

  • Jalen Hurts is 5-10 ATS in his career on the road, including 2-6 ATS as a road favorite (1-3 ATS this season).


  • Taylor Heinicke is 5-0-1 ATS in his past six starts (3-0-1 ATS this season). He is 9-2-1 ATS in his past 12 starts. Heinicke is 2-0 ATS in his career as a road favorite.

  • Washington is 4-0 ATS in their past four games as a favorite.

  • Since 1994, teams coming off a win as a double-digit underdog are 2-10 ATS in the following game when they are on short rest.

  • This is the 16th consecutive game Houston will be an underdog, the longest active streak in the NFL and the second-longest streak in franchise history (19 straight in 2002-03). Houston is the only team to be an underdog in every game this season. This is Davis Mills’ 21st career start. He is the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to begin his career as an underdog in his first 20 starts (Troy Aikman, Tim Couch, Dan Fouts, Randy Johnson).


Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their past five games. Their past three games went under the total.

  • Dennis Allen is 3-7 ATS in his career as a favorite (5-5 SU), including 1-2 ATS with New Orleans (2-1 SU).

  • This is the third dome game in the past three seasons to feature a total in the 30s. The previous two went under.

  • Los Angeles has not been more than a three-point underdog since the 2020 Divisional Playoffs (+7 at Green Bay).

  • Andy Dalton is 24-11-1 ATS in his career as at least a four-point favorite (1-0 ATS with New Orleans).


Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Since 2015, teams with 7+ wins are 6-0-1 ATS against teams with 3 or fewer wins when they are not favored by more than three points. Those teams are 10-3-1 ATS when not favored by at least four points.

  • New York is 7-2 ATS this season, tied with Tennessee for the best mark in the league. New York is 5-1 ATS in its past six games and 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season. New York is also 4-1 ATS at home.

  • Dan Campbell is 3-6 ATS with Detroit when he is not at least a four-point underdog.

  • Four straight New York games have gone under the total.


New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New York is 4-0 outright and ATS on the road this season, including three wins as an underdog. New York is the only team undefeated both outright and ATS on the road.

  • New England has covered three straight games when the line is between +3 and -3. New York is 5-1 ATS in their past six games in that role.

  • New England has won 13 straight meetings, going 9-4 ATS with four straight covers.

  • Since 2002, there has only been one instance of New England being favored by three points or fewer at home against New York (-3 in 2020). New England has won 11 straight home meetings (6-5 ATS).

  • This is the 22nd straight meeting New England has been favored over New York, the longest active streak in any head-to-head matchup including playoffs.

  • Bill Belichick is 2-7 ATS in home games following a bye week with New England. He is 3-11 ATS off a bye at home including his time in Cleveland.

  • Unders in division games are 30-16-1 this season.


  • Las Vegas is 9-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in its last 10 meetings against Denver, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog in that span (3-2 SU).

  • Denver is 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) as a favorite this season, with all three games going under the total.

  • Denver games are 8-1 to the under this season, the highest mark in the league. Five straight Denver games have gone under the total.

  • Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in their past three games.

  • Josh McDaniels is 10-21 ATS in his past 31 games as a head coach after starting his career 6-0 ATS.

  • Unders in division games are 30-16-1 this season.


  • Cincinnati has been a road favorite of at least four points in Pittsburgh just twice in the Super Bowl era (-4.5 in 1986, -5.5 in 1971). Both times, Cincinnati lost outright. In the Super Bowl era, Cincinnati is 1-4 outright and ATS as a road favorite in Pittsburgh (last instance: 2013).

  • Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog (13-7 outright), including 7-0-2 ATS over the last five seasons (7-2 outright).

  • Mike Tomlin is 5-2 outright and ATS in his career against Cincinnati as an underdog.

  • Pittsburgh is 22-10-2 ATS as an underdog over the past five seasons.

  • Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their past seven games.

  • Unders in division games are 30-16-1 this season.


Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Minnesota would be the fourth team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to be a regular-season home underdog despite a record of 8-1 or better. The last two instances were both final-week games where Kansas City (2020) and Green Bay (2011) benched their regular starting QBs for rest. The only other instance in that span was by the 1976 Oakland Raiders (11-1), who were a two-point home underdog to Cincinnati (9-3). Oakland won 35-20.

  • Over the last two seasons, Dallas is an NFL-best 19-7 ATS overall, including 13-4 ATS as a favorite, 10-3 ATS on the road, and 6-1 ATS after a loss.

  • Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS when not favored by at least 3.5 points this season.

  • All five meetings between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins ​​have gone over the total.


  • Patrick Mahomes is 13-0 outright in his career in road division games (9-4 ATS).

  • Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS against Kansas City. This is the second-largest home underdog role of Justin Herbert’s career (if 3.5 or higher). His only larger home underdog role was in his first career start in 2020 (+9 vs Kansas City; covered spread).

  • Los Angeles is 1-3 ATS at home this season, 0-3 ATS past three home games, all as a favorite.

  • Kansas City is 49-26-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid.

  • Unders in division games are 30-16-1 this season. Unders in prime-time games are 19-11-1, including 8-2 on Sunday Night Football.


  • Kyle Shanahan is 4-9-1 ATS as a regular-season favorite of at least seven points and 2-8-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo.

  • Kliff Kingsbury is 17-16-1 outright as an underdog and 11-14 outright as a favorite. He is the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a record over .500 as an underdog and below .500 as a favorite. Kingsbury is 22-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS when getting at least seven points.

  • Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS against San Francisco over the past five seasons. Kyle Shanahan is 2-7-1 ATS against Arizona, including 1-4-1 ATS against Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Four straight Arizona games have gone over the total.

  • San Francisco is 3-0 outright and ATS in division games this season.

  • Favorites are 4-0 ATS in Mexico City games all-time.

  • Unders in division games are 30-16-1 this season. Unders in prime-time games are 19-11-1.

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