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2022 NFL Week 15 playoff-clinching scenarios

Posted on December 18, 2022

Dec 16, 2022

  • ESPN staff

With just four weeks left in the 2022 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is shaping up.

The Philadelphia Eagles have clinched their playoff spot in the NFC, and the San Francisco 49ers officially won the NFC West after their win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday. The Minnesota Vikings clinched the NFC North with a win over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night, and the Buffalo Bills earned a playoff berth with a win over the Miami Dolphins.

However, the remaining teams in both conferences are still looking to lock in their spots for the postseason and have a chance to do so in Week 15.

Here are the playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 15 as teams try to reach Super Bowl LVII on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The playoffs begin Jan. 14, with 14 total teams making the field, seven from the NFC and seven from the AFC.

AFC

Clinched:


Opponent: Houston Texans (1-11-1) | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Kansas City clinches AFC West division title with:

  • KC win OR

  • LAC loss OR

  • KC shut + LAC shut

Kansas City clinches playoff berth with:

  • KC tie + NYJ lose + NE lose OR

  • KC tie + MIA loss + NE loss + NYJ tie OR

  • KC tie + MIA loss + NYJ loss + NE tie

NFC

Clinched:


Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8) | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Dallas clinches playoff berth with:

  • DAL win OR

  • DAL tie + NYG/WAS does not end in a tie OR

  • DAL tie + SEA loss or tie OR

  • SEA loss + DET loss or tie OR

  • SEA loss + WAS loss


2022 FPI playoff chances

Team Playoffs
chances
Division title
chances
Top seed
chances
PHI Clinched 88.6% 88.5%
KC 99.9% 99.9% 43.4%
VALLEY 99.9% 11.4% 11.1%
BUF 99.8% 94.5% 45.6%
CAMPFIRE 99.6% 67.1% 3.4%
SF Clinched Clinched 0.2%
CIN 98.4% 32.9% 7.4%
MY 99.9% 99.9% 0.2%
TEN 80.1% 79.9%
LAC 75.0%
TB 71.8% 71.5%
MIA 70.0% 5.0% 0.2%
WSH 70.0%
SEA 56.2% 4.3%
NEW 53.4%
NO 28.0% 0.4%
NEW 25.0% 0.2%
CAR 23.8% 23.5%
JAX 19.6% 18.9%
THE 12.1% 0.1%
GB 8.1%
ATL 4.4% 4.2%
LV 3.0%
IND 1.2% 1.2%
NO 0.9% 0.9%
CLE 0.2%
PIT 0.1%
TO RIDE
THIGH

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