Week 15 of the NFL season wraps up Monday night with the Green Bay Packers (-7, 39.5) hosting the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity this week to wager on professional football. So which plays do our analysts like the most?
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh duck Doug Kezirianfantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moodyplus ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for the matchup.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, 39.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers enter Monday night’s matchup as favorites over Baker Mayfield and the Rams. Can Mayfield, coming off a comeback victory over the Raiders last week, continue his magical run for his new team, or will Rodgers and the Packers prevail and keep their slim playoff hopes (+750) alive?
Fortenbaugh: Green Bay in a 6-point teaser is the move for me. Drop that line to -1 and then start looking ahead to Week 16 for a suitable tag team partner. At the time of this writing, San Francisco is a 6.5-point home favorite over Washington next Sunday. With extra rest for the Niners, I’d have no problem pairing them up with Green Bay.
Kezirian: I would absolutely use Green Bay in a teaser with a few different teams, depending on your preference. The Rams had a nice comeback win on Thursday night, but they are thin and Mayfield is not a good quarterback. The Packers should handle a SoCal team in these temperatures.
Moody: My recommendation is to bet the Packers to cover the spread. The bye came at a perfect time for Green Bay. Rodgers will have Romeo Doubs back to complement Christian Watson and Allen Lazard against a poor Rams defense. The Rams’ pass rush has waned over the last month, and Aaron Donald will miss another game. With the Packers’ offensive line ranking third in pass-block win rate, Rodgers should more have adequate protection to shine. On the flip side, Mayfield ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of both sack rate and interception rate. Plus, the Rams are only 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games.
treasure: The Packers’ disintegration this year is a bit overstated. They’ve played a tough schedule, including the seventh-toughest schedule on offense. Adjusting for that, they have an above-average offense. It’s not a great defense, but neither is the Rams defense without Donald. And, while Mayfield’s comeback against the Raiders was great, we can learn more from his performance over the entire season than his performance in just one quarter — and his performance over the entire season has been awful. So I feel pretty good about the Packers winning and covering in this game.
Is there anything else you like or are playing in this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: I’m making a “beer money” bet on Mayfield for above 10.5 rushing yards. Green Bay’s defense has already permitted 340 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season (third-most in the NFL) and Mayfield is still learning Sean McVay’s offense. On the road and under pressure, I expect the former Heisman Trophy winner to try and make something happen when the pocket breaks down.
Walder: Give me Ben Skowronek above 29.5 receiving yards (-115). In his last two games, Skowronek has played on 97% and 100% of snaps, respectively, so just being out there that often is going to present opportunities. Plus, in the last game against the Raiders, Skowronek caught seven passes (on eight targets) for 89 yards. There’s some extra signal in the most-recent game played anyway, but I have to think it matters even more when there’s a new quarterback in that game, who is starting the next one (as is the case here).
Moody: Like Rodgers practicer 1.5 passing touchdowns. A healthy Rodgers, coming off a bye, throwing passes to Watson, Lazard and Doubs? It’s a great spot to surpass this line against a vulnerable Rams secondary. In five of his last seven games, Rodgers has thrown at least two TD passes and, for the Packers to sneak into the playoffs, this is a must-win game.